Bitcoin Halving: Mechanism, Cycle History, and Impact on Your Investment
Discover how the Bitcoin Halving influences the cryptocurrency market, its history since 2009, and what it means for French investors in 2025-2026, notably through PEA, CTO, AV, and PER.
Bitcoin Halving: Mechanism, Cycle History, and Impact on Your Investment
The Bitcoin Halving is one of the most anticipated and analyzed events by cryptocurrency investors. In 2025-2026, as the next halving approaches, it is crucial to understand how it works, its historical impact on prices, and how to leverage it in your investment strategy, notably through French schemes such as the PEA, CTO, AV, or PER.
What is the Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin Halving is a mechanism built into the Bitcoin protocol that halves the reward given to miners for each newly validated block. Initially, the reward was 50 bitcoins per block in 2009. It has been halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years): 25 BTC in 2012, 12.5 BTC in 2016, 6.25 BTC in 2020, and soon 3.125 BTC in 2024-2025.
This mechanism aims to control inflation and limit the total number of bitcoins in circulation to 21 million, giving Bitcoin a programmed scarcity often compared to digital gold.
History of halving cycles and impact on Bitcoin price
Letâs analyze the first three halvings and their effects on the price:
2012: The first halving reduced the reward from 50 to 25 BTC. The price rose from about 12 USD before the event to over 1,000 USD in 2013, an 80-fold increase in one year.
2016: The second halving lowered the reward to 12.5 BTC. The price increased from 650 USD before the halving to nearly 20,000 USD in December 2017, a gain of over 30 times.
2020: The third halving reduced the reward to 6.25 BTC. The price climbed from 8,700 USD in May 2020 to an all-time high of 69,000 USD in November 2021, an almost 8-fold gain.
These cycles show a bullish trend post-halving, although volatility remains high. However, each cycle has seen a gradual decrease in percentage returns, which makes sense as the market matures.
Concrete comparison: Bitcoin Halving vs other scarce assets
Unlike gold, whose annual production increases slightly, Bitcoin reduces its supply by half periodically. For example:
Asset
Annual Supply Reduction
Impact on Price
Bitcoin (post-halving)
~50% every 4 years
Historical strong post-halving price increases
Gold
~1-2% per year
Price influenced by industrial and monetary demand
Stocks (e.g., CAC 40)
Variable, depends on issuances and buybacks
Impact linked to earnings and economic growth
This programmed scarcity makes Bitcoin a potentially deflationary asset, attracting investors looking to diversify their portfolios.
For the French investor: integrating Bitcoin Halving into your 2025-2026 strategy
With the halving expected in 2024-2025, French investors should consider the best ways to expose their portfolios to Bitcoin:
PEA (Plan dâĂpargne en Actions): The PEA does not allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies, but some blockchain-related funds or ETFs are emerging. They offer indirect exposure with tax advantages.
CTO (Ordinary Securities Account): The CTO is the most flexible way to buy bitcoins directly via derivatives or shares of blockchain-related companies. Be mindful of capital gains tax (30% flat tax).
Life Insurance (AV): Some life insurance contracts now include cryptocurrency-related funds, offering advantageous long-term taxation and professional management.
PER (Retirement Savings Plan): The PER can include blockchain-exposed funds, allowing you to prepare for retirement while benefiting from attractive tax treatment.
It is advisable to allocate a reasonable portion (often 5-10%) of your portfolio to cryptocurrencies to benefit from the post-halving upside potential while limiting volatility-related risks.
Important disclaimer
Bitcoin remains a highly volatile and speculative asset. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks of capital loss. It is essential to diversify your investments and consult a financial advisor before making any decisions.
French tax regulations evolve regularly; ensure you fully understand the tax implications of each vehicle (PEA, CTO, AV, PER) before investing.
In summary, the Bitcoin Halving is a key event that strongly influences the cryptocurrency market. In 2025-2026, it could offer interesting opportunities for well-informed and cautious French investors.